13 Apr Tories aiming for Autumn 2024 election, says Sir John Curtice
THE Prime Minister is aiming for a General Election in October or November next year, according to an opinion polling expert.
Sir John Curtice also suggested that the Conservative Party will be looking at modest losses in the local elections next month as it did poorly last time in 2019.
He told GB News: “I’ve long since taken the view that October or November of next year has to be the most likely date.
“By going for as long as possible, the Conservatives maximise their chances that they can achieve a political recovery.
“The Prime Minister will only go early if there is a fairly dramatic turnaround in the polls by the Spring of next year, that makes him believe that perhaps he’s got a chance of winning.”
In a discussion with Mark Longhurst during GB News Live, he continued: “Any prime minister is bound to be cautious about going early unless they’re absolutely sure they’re going to win.
“And that really requires not just a sudden boost in the polls, but a sustained period of leading opinion polls over quite some period of time and the chances of that happening by next Spring are obviously not necessarily that high.
“The honest truth is if they have any sense the Conservative Party will keep its options open. If all of a sudden for some reason or another there was some scandal involving Keir Starmer and he has to resign and support for the Labour Party collapses, we might have an election.
“We’ve got rid of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act and prime ministers now can choose an election within the five-year timeframe at a time that they think is to their advantage.”
On next month’s local elections, Sir John said: “The Conservatives are likely to lose, but don’t exaggerate the extent to which they’re likely to lose, because we have to remember the seats that are up for grabs this year were last fought over in the spring of 2019 when the party was well down in the in the opinion polls.
“Theresa May was struggling to get her Brexit deal through the House of Commons, she resigned a few weeks later when the party was down at 26% in the opinion polls.
“It’s true that Labour was well down in the polls that time too, so Labour will certainly be expected to make some progress.
“But talk of heavy Conservative losses is probably over-egging the pudding of what will happen with an 18 point Labour lead in the polls.”
