11 Oct Smoking going extinct: Smoking to lose its puff in England by 2044
Using historical ONS data from 2000 to 2021 and a machine learning algorithm, Go.Compare Life Insurance has predicted that the number of active smokers in England will significantly decline over the next few years. According to these predictions, the number of smokers will drop close to zero in around 20 years, meaning England will become smoke-free by 2044.[1]
The projections also show that women will stop smoking sooner than men, with their numbers declining towards zero by 2039, five years earlier than men. As it stands, 2023 should end with approximately 24 million active smokers, 11 million of which are women, while 13 million are men.
The government is currently striving to make England smoke-free by 2030.[2] However, an independent review published in June 2022[3] stated that without further action, this target would be missed by at least seven years, coinciding with Go.Compare’s prediction of 2044.
One of the driving movements to help smokers quit is Stoptober, an annual event led by Public Health England during which smokers are encouraged to abstain from smoking for 28 days in October. According to the Deputy Chief Medical Officer for England, this event has helped 2.5 million smokers quit over the past 12 years.[4]
Quitting smoking has several health benefits, regardless of age, and brings about other advantages such as a lowered cost of life insurance.
Matt Sanders, life insurance expert at Go.Compare, said: “Life insurance is very likely to be more expensive for those who smoke, even when comparing different deals. So, quitting smoking not only helps improve your health, but it also helps lower the cost of your premiums.
“As a general rule, you are considered an active smoker if you have consumed a nicotine product in the last 12 months. In order to save on your insurance, therefore, you need to be smoke-free for that length of time. It’s also important to be honest about your smoking activity, as life insurers may check your medical history to corroborate any information you provide.”
