21 Mar Putin finally visits Mariupol and the on-going tragedy of the Russian people
John R. Bryson, Professor of Enterprise & Economic Geography, Birmingham Business School
Finally, President Vladimir Putin has visited part of Ukraine that Russia has illegally occupied. The context here is important as this is a visit by a Russian leader who also has an arrest warrant against him for war crimes that focus on the unlawful deportation of children from Ukraine to Russia since Moscow’s invasion commenced in February 2022.
Putin’s drive through the former city of Mariupol, that Russia has devastated, highlights why he is such a poor leader. To Putin, this visit is far too late as he should have followed the example set by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and visited the frontline much earlier during Putin’s so-called special military operation and during daylight hours. A night-time visit highlights that Putin is too afraid to visit occupied Ukraine during daylight hours.
This visit to Mariupol was personal for Putin, and this is fundamental to his poor leadership. He is meant to represent the interests of the Russian people, but Putin confuses his own personal desires and interests with those of all Russian citizens. The outcome is that Russian citizens are sent to their slaughter in an unnecessary war that is destroying Russia’s current and future prosperity. This is very much Putin’s war, and yet this has been his first visit to anywhere close to the conflict zone.
All human conflicts are explained by a concern with hierarchy and territory. For Putin, his Ukrainian war is about enhancing his place in Russian history and in reclaiming Russia’s position as a superpower. To Putin this invasion was intended to enhance Russia’s territorial security and his own position within Russa, but the reality is that Putin’s special military operation has undermined Russia’s territorial and economic security and destroyed Russia’s claim to be a superpower. Since the invasion, Putin has made a series of poor decisions that reflect his interests rather than those of the Russian people.
In this century, there is no justifiable reason for instigating a territorial war. Any political leader who initiates a war should be considered as a leader who no longer represents the interests of the people. The UN Charter is clear on this point but preserves “the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs”. Russia is violating the UN charter and Ukraine is engaged in self-defence. This violation is not in the interests of the Russian people. There are two points to make.
On the one hand, Ukraine never threatened Russia’s territory as Ukraine would never have invaded Russia. For Putin, the Ukrainian threat for Russia was about the possible spread of people power throughout Russia. Nevertheless, Putin’s Ukrainian war is eroding Russia’s economic and territorial security through the needless death of Russian citizens. This is a critical point.
In 2021, Russia had a population of 147.2 million. Since 2016, Russia has experienced a population crisis as its death rate has exceeded its birth rate. Russia has an aging population with a median age of 40.3 years. The country’s current fertility rate is one of the lowest in the world with 1.5 children born per woman and this is well below the replacement rate of 2.1. Putin’s mass mobilisation has targeted younger cohorts and their death in a pointless conflict will contribute to the erosion of Russia’s economic security. Putin’s war will further erode Russia’s fertility rate and will increase the country’s median age. It is important to appreciate that for a leader like Putin, people are an expendable and replaceable resource, but this replacement process is undermined by Russia’s population crisis. One could argue that Putin’s unlawful deportation of children from Ukraine is his sole solution to Russia’s aging population.
On the other hand, Russia’s Ukraine war has destroyed the country’s position in the global economy. Sanctions have weakened Russia’s economy and their impacts continue to ricochet throughout Russia resulting in negative and perverse impacts on the Russian people. Putin has failed the Russian people and central to this failure is the emphasis that he has placed on maintaining Russia’s dependency on oil and gas.
Russia should have a highly diversified economy and it should be one of the most advanced high-income developed market economies in the world. Between 1998 and 2009, the Russian economy experienced astonishing growth, but in 2014 economic decline commenced and the country slipped from being classified as a high income to middle income economy. This is an astonishing story of economic growth and then persistent decline. It is no coincidence that Russia’s economic decline coincided with Putin’s decision to annex Crimea in 2014.
Any country considering initiating an armed attack on another territory should learn from Putin’s on-going failure in Ukraine. Putin needs to place the interests of the Russian people first rather than his own interests. It also must be recognised that warfare destroys lives, but also contributes to climate change; warfare is never carbon neutral and should always be considered as a climate crime.
There are three tragedies that come from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. There is the tragedy of the Ukrainian people who are fighting to maintain their independence. There is the tragedy of the Russian people who are being treated as an expendable resource, and finally there is the tragedy of the planet. All this means, that instigating a territorial war destroys lives and territorial futures and must be considered as a crime against humanity and a climate crime.
