03 Mar Public demand for Covid inquiry threatens tentative Conservative recovery, says Matt Goodwin
PUBLIC disquiet at the leaked Matt Hancock messages threatens to hinder a tentative Tory recovery in the opinion polls, according to a leading polling expert.
Professor Matt Goodwin of Kent University was commenting on the results of the latest GB News People’s Poll, which found that 50% of the public want an immediate public inquiry into the Government’s response to Covid.
He said: “It’s quite clear that there was a whole other conversation going on in Government about the lockdowns and the decisions were not always, as we were told, rooted in science.
“For the Government, this is deeply problematic. On the one hand, Rishi Sunak, and the Conservatives are trying to get back on their feet.
“On the other hand, this is really reminding people that actually, during Covid, there was a lot of inconsistency. There was some hypocrisy, there were contradictions.
“I suspect that’s why we’re seeing these big numbers saying, actually, let’s get everything out into the open, let’s have a conversation about what happened very small numbers of people, less than 10% oppose the idea of having a public inquiry about Covid, so this issue is not going away anytime soon.”
Asked if the results on Covid lockdowns vindicated the Government’s position, he said: “To some extent it is, a large majority of voters have always supported the lockdowns.
“But I do think it’s significant that 15% of people now are saying that actually, they don’t feel particularly in hindsight, they don’t think lockdown was the right decision.
“It’d be interesting to see if that number begins to move as we get more information about how these decisions were taken as we go through the public inquiry about the lockdowns.
“But yeah, most people still in hindsight, remain supportive of that decision.”
On the poll’s findings on support for political parties, he said: “It’s the highest Conservative share of the vote that we’ve had since December.
“If you look at all polls, not just the People Poll, the average Conservative vote is up from 23%, when the Conservatives decided to go with Rishi Sunak, to over 26% today.
“So a very small shift, a visible shift, but a small shift. Labour remains in a commanding lead in the polls again, more than 20 points ahead of the Conservatives.”
He added: “I was talking to somebody around Number 10 in the week, and what they will tell you is Rishi Sunak is beginning to find the narrative that he wants for the next election.
“It’s going to be about him portraying himself as the quiet Prime Minister getting things done, I’m sorting out Northern Ireland and standing up to Nicola Sturgeon, and bringing down inflation and starting to take action on small boats.
“That’s the sort of narrative that they’re going for ahead of the next election and they will be taking some comfort from the fact that the parliamentary party has quietened down.
“I gave a talk to MPs earlier this week, and I was quite taken aback by just how much support there was actually for Number 10, even Boris Johnson has kept himself relatively quiet this week.
“So it may be the start of a new mood around the party.”
