29 Dec PROPERTY EXPERT SETS OUT HOUSE MARKET PREDICTIONS FOR 2024
One of the country’s leading property experts says house prices won’t crash in
2024 – but Britain’s rental crisis will deepen..
Outlining his predictions for next year in the market Jonathan Rolande also said an early General Election could provide a “much needed boost” for the sector.
Mr Rolande, from the National Association of Property Buyers, said: “Everybody is busy trying to predict the future and what will happen in the market next year.
“Anyone who claims they have all the answers should be avoided. But there are signs from this year we can use to make informed predictions about what is likely to happen.”
Outlining his four main predictions, Jonathan says:
No house price crash:
It is famously difficult to predict house prices in anything but the short term but I’ll have a go anyway. Over 2024 we can expect to see recovery in volumes and prices in popular locations where wealthy investors purchase or families buy a home to live in. The values here look likely to increase but the national average will be pulled down by less desirable property losing value. Buy to Let is still in bad shape and will continue to be so for some time to come. This will suppress prices in larger blocks of flats and estate-type homes. We may end 2024 with almost no growth in prices but it could have been far worse – a free fall predicted by some, looks very unlikely at the moment.
Rents will continue to soar:
Inflation in the rental sector will slow as rents reach their peak affordability. The market will still be very competitive with too many tenants chasing too few properties. This problem is exacerbated as many already in a rented home are choosing not to move because the market is so difficult. Buy to Let mortgages eliminate almost all of the profit of Buy to Let so there will be fewer sales to small investors. More may choose to leave the sector ahead of a predicted Labour victory which will again reduce supply. 2024 will be a difficult year for tenants yet again.
General Election could help market:
The current Government will inevitably try to generate a feel-good factor which may temporarily boost the property market. The expected arrival of a Labour Government would usually strike fear into the hearts of investors and property developers, many of whom would run to the nearest exit. However, the property market has been in such a dreadful state for years now, a moderate Labour administration may be welcomed if measures are finally put in place to increase stock and equality in the sector. Any change will cause some jitters, but I see a change of Government as a positive thing for the market.
Interest rate rises are behind us:
With the Bank being independent, rates should not be adjusted to assist in an election campaign. Based on the property market and inflation data alone, I do not think there is a case to reduce rates at least until the final half of 2024. That said, after years of gradual increases, a static rate for the year would be very welcome!
