07 Feb Poll reveals Labour losses and Reform surge in Essex at next General Election
A new MRP poll, conducted by national communications agency PLMR and Electoral Calculus, predicts a significant shift in the political landscape across the East of England. Labour is expected to suffer major losses at the next General Election, while Reform UK is poised to capitalise on voter discontent driven by financial pessimism. The Conservatives, meanwhile, are projected to regain lost ground, reaffirming their position as the largest party in the region.
Financial concerns are widespread, with more than half of respondents across Suffolk, Essex, Norfolk and Cambridgeshire expecting their personal finances to worsen over the coming year. This anxiety appears to be fuelling increased support for Reform UK, particularly in Essex and Norfolk, where disillusionment with traditional parties is strongest.
In terms of seats across the four counties, the Conservatives could win 26 (up from 18), Labour 5 (down from 16) and Reform UK 8 (a rise from 3 seats). The Liberal Democrats are predicted to win 3 (down from 5) and the Greens would retain their single seat.
The Conservatives are expected to make strong gains, notably in Cambridgeshire, while Labour faces a sharp decline, with potential losses across constituencies in Suffolk and Essex. Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage in Clacton, Essex, is projected to overtake Labour as the second-largest party in the region – underscoring a broader shift among voters seeking alternatives to mainstream parties.
Tim Miller, Managing Director of PLMR Genesis, the East of England team for PLMR, said: “The region appears to be undergoing a significant political transformation. With the Conservatives predicted to regain ground, Labour facing losses and the Reform Party surging in support, the East is shaping up to be another crucial battleground at the next General Election.
“For the Labour Government, they will be judged on whether they deliver for the region – from a greater sense of financial security for people and businesses, to investment in infrastructure and public services. The Party will be aware that these will be the key deciding factors for voters when they go to the polling booths at the next election.”
The public was also asked about whether they anticipated that their personal finances would improve or worsen over the coming year, unveiling a widespread financial pessimism across the electorate in the East of England.
A majority in 36 constituencies expect their finances to worsen, with figures often exceeding 50%. Optimism remains limited, with positive outlooks rarely surpassing 12% – Cambridge (18%) and Norwich South (14%) being notable exceptions. An additional 35% hold a neutral stance, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about the region’s economic future.
Nationally, the survey of 5,743 British adults, the largest post-Election poll to date, reveals a near-even split in seat projections among the Conservatives, Labour, and Reform UK – an unprecedented three-way tie at the top of British politics.
The poll data shows that Reform UK leads with 24% of the projected vote share, just one percentage point ahead of the Labour Party and the Conservatives, both at 23%.
In terms of seats, the Conservatives could win 178 (up from 121), Labour 174 (down from 412), and Reform UK 175 (a dramatic rise from only 5 seats).
Other parties also see significant changes, with the Liberal Democrats projected to hold 57 seats (down from 72), the SNP at 37 (up from 9), the Greens remaining at 4 seats, Plaid Cymru dropping to 2 seats (from 4), and minor parties retaining 5 seats.
In many seats, particularly in former Labour “heartland” areas, Reform UK is challenging Labour’s dominance, while traditional Conservative-held, wealthier suburban seats in southern England are projected to flip to the Liberal Democrats.
Given the tight three-way race, if a General Election were held tomorrow and these figures were replicated, the most likely outcome would point to a Conservative / Reform UK coalition.
Martin Baxter, Founder of Electoral Calculus, said: “Our survey shows an unprecedented three-way tie at the top of British politics. If there were a General Election tomorrow, any of the three parties could come out on top but would be unlikely to have an overall majority. This represents a massive change in public opinion since the general election just seven months ago.”
PLMR Genesis is a team of integrated PR, digital marketing and public affairs consultants based in Ipswich, specialising in energy, education, healthcare and professional services. It is the East of England team for PLMR, a top 50 UK communications agency.
