28 Mar Corbyn likely to lose his seat after Labour ban, says Sir John Curtice
FORMER Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn is likely to lose if he stands as an independent candidate at the next general election, according to the pollster Sir John Curtice.
He was commenting after Labour’s National Executive voted to bar Mr Corbyn from standing for the party.
Sir John told GB News: “That’s going to be pretty tough. It’s such a safe seat that the irony of that is that Mr Corbyn has to get a very large proportion of the vote to have a good chance of defeating the Labour candidate.
“I’m sure he will do creditably but the history of independent candidates trying to hang on to their seats shows it is a very, very difficult to do.”
In a discussion with Patrick Christys, he added: “Perhaps one of the reasons why this motion has been brought forward is largely symbolic.
“It is because, the truth is, for so long as Sir Keir denied Jeremy Corbyn the whip as a Labour MP then Corbyn was not going to be able to stand as a Labour candidate anyway.
“But I think the truth is that probably in part what Sir Keir is doing is responding to the Conservative Party saying, ‘well, whatever happened in the past, you can now be clear that I have drawn a clear line between myself and Jeremy Corbyn’.
“He is therefore trying to limit the force of that Conservative accusation which is brought up at virtually every Prime Minister’s Questions.”
Asked about Labour’s chances in Scotland, he added: “Mr Yousaf is not popular in the way that Nicola Sturgeon was.
“It’s also true that the Labour Party is now only running about 10 points behind the SNP in the most recent polls of Westminster voting intentions, that said it has to be remembered that a lot of people in Scotland are still voting primarily on the basis of the constitutional question whether they’re for or against independence.
“Labour’s support is nearly three times higher amongst those who voted ‘no’ in 2014 than it is amongst those who voted ‘yes’.
“So the opportunity is there but it’s by no means guaranteed to give Labour a rich reward.”
